Song Jia, a researcher at the National Energy Securities Research Institute, said that the entire upstream industry is constantly improving, and it is constantly a sapphire or a chip. In the coming year, it is not that all companies' profitability is improving, but that SMEs will be accelerated to integrate. Looking forward to next year, everyone should look back at the upstream companies.
According to Song Jia, the current industry first is the LED lighting cycle, and the second is the formation of the entire LED. Many companies have chosen downstream targets, including lighting companies and packaging companies. Packaging companies have performed well in the first half of this year. However, looking forward to next year and the following year, Song Jia believes that it is still back to the top, optimistic about chips and more upstream enterprises.
First of all, look at the entire lighting, LED lighting, in fact, has been calculating the economics of the entire LED lighting, but we think that LED lighting is actually a consumer product, in the specific application, in fact, very few people will calculate the economics is how much, how much can cover the cost.
Guojin Securities believes that the penetration rate of LED lighting will be faster than that of energy-saving lamps. On the one hand, the price, LED lighting price competition will be more powerful than energy-saving lamps. In the same year, the energy-saving lamp industry is also competing for three companies, but now In addition to the original LED manufacturers, including Samsung LEDs, LED lighting in this regard, we found that the price drop is the main line of the entire industry. Therefore, since the price cut in March, prices have been cut in April, May and June.
From the perspective of the promotion of the whole industry, in fact, the current high penetration rate is the downlight and spotlight. The penetration rate in the United States is about 10%, but the downlights and spotlights account for about 5% of the industry. That is, the tube that everyone usually says is 40%. So now the lamp is sold without downlights and spotlights, mainly because the price is too expensive. From the next year, the industry is basically trying to get the price of this piece to about 30 yuan, so next year will be the whole industry. Year of growth.
For the capacity of the market, Guojin Securities made a simple estimate. Guojin Securities feels that this industry will have relatively high-speed growth in the market from 2013 to 2015. For the upstream, the demand for the entire LED lighting industry is actually around 1,500. If the whole market rises next year, next year, There will be about 500 new demand in the next year. From now on, although the whole market has risen, there are three companies that are truly bankrupt, and next year will be even more powerful than in March, April and May this year.
As far as the whole industry is concerned, on the one hand, the whole industry chain is shifting to the domestic market. On the other hand, in fact, the big leader has already taken shape, and the entire upstream and downstream industry chain is holding each other to form an industrial chain camp. Investors have always felt that some domestic companies have always been third-tier companies, and their incomes are much lower, but the difference in application and price is in fact. These companies are already the world's largest companies. At present, Taiwan and China account for about 50% of the total LED chip production capacity, and this proportion will be further enhanced in the future.
Guojin Securities said that after the entire LED lighting market rose this year, including Philips companies did not go bankrupt. Two large independent supply camps have taken shape. In fact, they face two problems. One is that large chip factories need to find downstream channels to sell their chips, so they need to cooperate with the packaging factory. In order to ensure the leading edge of packaging technology, the packaging factory must cooperate with the large chip factory to keep up with the future development trend of the chip. So you will find that Sanan has cooperated with the Sunshine and the Sunshine in the first half of this year. This trend is actually very obvious.
From the perspective of the entire chip company share, the concentration of the entire industry is constantly improving. The domestic industrial chain is also constantly shifting to the domestic market. If the chip and package data of Taiwan are analyzed, the output value of the packaging factory increased by more than 20% in the first half of this year, but the chip factory did not grow. This share was robbed by mainland enterprises. .
In addition to the formation of the entire industry chain, the entire upstream industry pattern continues to improve, and is constantly a sapphire, or a chip, chip links like Sanan, in fact, the cost and technical advantages, many companies can not compare. In the coming year, it is not that all companies' profitability is improving, but that SMEs will be accelerated to integrate. Looking forward to next year, everyone should look back at the upstream companies.
In terms of the choice of the entire industry chain, in fact, packaging companies are the most profitable enterprises this year, because this year, in addition to the entire LED lighting market, the entire backlight industry chain has been transferred from South Korea and Taiwan enterprises. Up to now, in fact, the capacity of many packaging factories has been expanded, and now the production capacity has not been hit, so we feel that the profitability of this piece is not sustainable.
Next year, I will go back and look at the entire chip industry. Now, apart from Taiwan’s fall, there are three companies in China, and there will be more companies next year. For the downstream enterprises, Guojin Securities does not think that the downstream enterprises have any big investment value. On the one hand, the lighting enterprises' capital advantages, production capacity advantages and brand advantages cannot be compared with traditional lighting companies, but for traditional lighting enterprises. The problem is that after the entire LED lighting market, all traditional lighting companies will face the problem of large collective asset impairment this year or next year.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
According to Song Jia, the current industry first is the LED lighting cycle, and the second is the formation of the entire LED. Many companies have chosen downstream targets, including lighting companies and packaging companies. Packaging companies have performed well in the first half of this year. However, looking forward to next year and the following year, Song Jia believes that it is still back to the top, optimistic about chips and more upstream enterprises.
First of all, look at the entire lighting, LED lighting, in fact, has been calculating the economics of the entire LED lighting, but we think that LED lighting is actually a consumer product, in the specific application, in fact, very few people will calculate the economics is how much, how much can cover the cost.
Guojin Securities believes that the penetration rate of LED lighting will be faster than that of energy-saving lamps. On the one hand, the price, LED lighting price competition will be more powerful than energy-saving lamps. In the same year, the energy-saving lamp industry is also competing for three companies, but now In addition to the original LED manufacturers, including Samsung LEDs, LED lighting in this regard, we found that the price drop is the main line of the entire industry. Therefore, since the price cut in March, prices have been cut in April, May and June.
From the perspective of the promotion of the whole industry, in fact, the current high penetration rate is the downlight and spotlight. The penetration rate in the United States is about 10%, but the downlights and spotlights account for about 5% of the industry. That is, the tube that everyone usually says is 40%. So now the lamp is sold without downlights and spotlights, mainly because the price is too expensive. From the next year, the industry is basically trying to get the price of this piece to about 30 yuan, so next year will be the whole industry. Year of growth.
For the capacity of the market, Guojin Securities made a simple estimate. Guojin Securities feels that this industry will have relatively high-speed growth in the market from 2013 to 2015. For the upstream, the demand for the entire LED lighting industry is actually around 1,500. If the whole market rises next year, next year, There will be about 500 new demand in the next year. From now on, although the whole market has risen, there are three companies that are truly bankrupt, and next year will be even more powerful than in March, April and May this year.
As far as the whole industry is concerned, on the one hand, the whole industry chain is shifting to the domestic market. On the other hand, in fact, the big leader has already taken shape, and the entire upstream and downstream industry chain is holding each other to form an industrial chain camp. Investors have always felt that some domestic companies have always been third-tier companies, and their incomes are much lower, but the difference in application and price is in fact. These companies are already the world's largest companies. At present, Taiwan and China account for about 50% of the total LED chip production capacity, and this proportion will be further enhanced in the future.
Guojin Securities said that after the entire LED lighting market rose this year, including Philips companies did not go bankrupt. Two large independent supply camps have taken shape. In fact, they face two problems. One is that large chip factories need to find downstream channels to sell their chips, so they need to cooperate with the packaging factory. In order to ensure the leading edge of packaging technology, the packaging factory must cooperate with the large chip factory to keep up with the future development trend of the chip. So you will find that Sanan has cooperated with the Sunshine and the Sunshine in the first half of this year. This trend is actually very obvious.
From the perspective of the entire chip company share, the concentration of the entire industry is constantly improving. The domestic industrial chain is also constantly shifting to the domestic market. If the chip and package data of Taiwan are analyzed, the output value of the packaging factory increased by more than 20% in the first half of this year, but the chip factory did not grow. This share was robbed by mainland enterprises. .
In addition to the formation of the entire industry chain, the entire upstream industry pattern continues to improve, and is constantly a sapphire, or a chip, chip links like Sanan, in fact, the cost and technical advantages, many companies can not compare. In the coming year, it is not that all companies' profitability is improving, but that SMEs will be accelerated to integrate. Looking forward to next year, everyone should look back at the upstream companies.
In terms of the choice of the entire industry chain, in fact, packaging companies are the most profitable enterprises this year, because this year, in addition to the entire LED lighting market, the entire backlight industry chain has been transferred from South Korea and Taiwan enterprises. Up to now, in fact, the capacity of many packaging factories has been expanded, and now the production capacity has not been hit, so we feel that the profitability of this piece is not sustainable.
Next year, I will go back and look at the entire chip industry. Now, apart from Taiwan’s fall, there are three companies in China, and there will be more companies next year. For the downstream enterprises, Guojin Securities does not think that the downstream enterprises have any big investment value. On the one hand, the lighting enterprises' capital advantages, production capacity advantages and brand advantages cannot be compared with traditional lighting companies, but for traditional lighting enterprises. The problem is that after the entire LED lighting market, all traditional lighting companies will face the problem of large collective asset impairment this year or next year.
(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)
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