China's new energy automotive industry has begun to take shape, and a number of leading companies with international competitiveness have emerged. Industry insiders expect that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 700,000 units in 2017 and it is expected to exceed 1 million in 2018. With the continuous adjustment of industry subsidy policies, the direction of support for the new energy automotive industry has begun to shift to “helping and supporting the best†and the industry has entered a phase of adjustment and upgrading. The industry believes that in 2018, under the influence of multiple factors such as the acceleration of subsidy, the entry of foreign brands, and the opening of the double-integration policy, China’s new energy auto industry will be driven by the government and accelerated to the market.
Usher in a period of rapid development
Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary-General of the China Automobile Industry Association, told the China Securities Journal that according to the current growth rate, the sales target of 700,000 new energy vehicles in 2017 should be achieved. It is expected that the sales growth of new energy vehicles will remain at 40% to 50% in 2018, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million next year.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November 2017, sales of new energy vehicles were 119,000 units, an increase of 83% year-on-year, and monthly production and sales volume hit a record high; from January to November, sales of new energy vehicles were 609,000 units, an increase of 51.4% year-on-year.
In 2017, the country introduced a number of new energy vehicle related policies, covering areas such as subsidies, infrastructure, macroeconomic coordination, and technology research and development, and promoting the realization of “Made in China 2025†and the development plan for energy-saving and new energy automotive industry ( (2012-2020)" is an important strategic goal. Among them, the “Measures for the Parallel Management of Passenger Vehicle Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integration†(referred to as the “double-integration policyâ€) announced in September 2017 is generally considered to have laid the foundation for the future pattern of China's new energy automobile industry. This policy will be implemented from April 1, 2018 and will begin official assessment in 2019.
Zhang Jinhua, executive vice president of the China Automobile Engineering Society, told the China Securities Journal reporter that after the implementation of the double-integration policy, the new energy auto industry will use the market power to force enterprises through the points system, promote the company to accelerate the electric transformation, and government subsidies will gradually Withdrawal, incentives for the development of new energy vehicles through market regulation.
The state's subsidy policy for the industry is accelerating. After 2020, subsidies for new energy vehicles will be fully withdrawn. This also means that the government-led model of fostering the market is coming to an end, and companies are leading the market in a new phase. The market is about to face the test of the post-subsidy era.
According to industry sources, due to the high cost of the battery and the backwardness of the charging infrastructure, post-subsidy era new energy vehicles are still in a weak position. The market expects that by 2025, new energy vehicles will be able to achieve the same purchasing economy of fuel vehicles. In the next 3-8 years, the development of new energy automobile industry will still require policy support. Zhang Jinhua said: "With the accelerated withdrawal of subsidies, we should continue to maintain a certain degree of tax incentives on pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Withdrawal of subsidies and tax retention will contribute to the sustained and healthy development of the new energy automotive industry. â€
With the national plan to ban the sale of fuel trucks on the agenda, Changan, BAIC and other independent brands have successively thrown off the timetable for the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. Since 2017, more and more companies such as Geely, Changan and Great Wall have accelerated the introduction of hybrid vehicles to meet the average fuel consumption challenge. Industry insiders expect that based on their own technology accumulation and advantages, accelerating the deployment of different types of hybrid vehicle technology and models will become a common choice for major auto companies to achieve energy-saving emission reduction targets.
As a strategic emerging industry, new energy vehicles are playing a leading role in investment. According to the approved investment scale and capacity planning for newly-built pure electric passenger vehicles, the total investment is approximately RMB 32.8 billion and the planned production capacity is 910,000. The investment per 10,000 capacity production is approximately RMB 360 million. According to the “New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Report of 2016†on the calculation method of investment scale, it is estimated that by 2020, new energy vehicles will reach 2 million capacity, which can drive the construction of new energy vehicles, power batteries, motors and charging piles. The direct investment scale is 1.43 trillion yuan.
Liu Bin, chief expert of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, believes that the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will increase the investment threshold for new-built pure electric vehicles. It is expected that the local government will also strengthen the requirements in terms of corporate R&D, financial strength, and sustainable development. Regulate industrial development work. It is expected that the difficulty of the approval of newly-approved companies will be increased, but enterprises with technological and sustainable development capabilities will continue to enter.
New energy vehicles have entered a period of rapid development on a global scale. The major car companies in the world have shifted their industrial strategy focus to new technology routes centered on new energy vehicles. For example, GM, Ford, Daimler, BMW, and Volkswagen all proposed mid- and long-term plans for the development of new energy vehicles. It is expected that new models will emerge in large numbers in 2018. In addition, as the R&D progress of the new vehicle manufacturers ramps up, the resources of traditional car companies are further tilted toward new energy vehicles. New energy auto companies and products have entered the process of survival of the fittest and the current competitive landscape is being broken and reshaped.
Power battery company performance differentiation
The huge demand for the new energy automobile industry has strongly promoted the technological advancement of power batteries and the expansion of industry scale. At present, China's battery industry has reached the world's largest scale, the overall level of the world's top three; China's power battery industry chain, especially positive and negative battery materials, in the international market share to maintain the first. Some of the power battery companies have entered the supply chain system of world-renowned auto companies.
From the perspective of industrial development, China has now formed four major power battery industrial clustered regions focusing on the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Central Plains and the Beijing-Tianjin region. According to public statistics, there are currently more than 250 power battery companies that are engaged in R&D and industrialization of power batteries, and the input of industry funds exceeds 100 billion yuan.
Data show that since the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a total of 11 batches of recommended vehicle models, including a total of 3,113 models. Judging from the battery classification of the promotion catalog, lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate are still the main types of passenger car batteries, in which the cumulative proportion of lithium iron phosphate accounts for 74%, and the proportion in pure electric buses is as high as 88%; lithium manganese oxide Cumulative proportion accounted for 20%, lithium manganese oxide accounted for a relatively high proportion in intermixing passenger cars; although the triple battery has entered, but still in the early stages of R & D promotion. On the passenger car side, Sanyuan Battery has become the mainstream of passenger cars, and the cumulative share in 2017 has reached 76%. For special vehicles, Sanyuan Battery and lithium iron phosphate battery accounted for 66% and 27% of the market, respectively. According to the overall technical path, lithium-ion power batteries are still the mainstream for R&D and industrialization for a long period of time in the future.
As the key technical indicators of subsidies are oriented, the competitiveness of domestic battery companies has risen rapidly. The domestic power battery industry has quickly formed a first-tier and second-tier echelon based on the Ningde era, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-tech, Shenzhen BAK, and Tianjin Lishen. The market is rapidly gathering at the leading edge. At present, only the Ningde era and BYD's two giants account for nearly 50% of the market share. The top ten companies have a market share of nearly 80%.
At the same time, under the stimulation of demand, the investment of domestic power battery companies continued to grow at a rapid rate, and the production capacity continued to expand. The concentration of production capacity led to the growth of power battery capacity much higher than that of new energy vehicles, and the oversupply of the power battery industry was oversupply. phenomenon. According to the data disclosed by China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the power battery capacity in 2016 was about 101GWh, while the shipment volume was only 30GWh. It is predicted that the total production capacity of power battery companies will exceed 230GWh in 2017, and the problem of overcapacity in the industry will be inevitable.
Lianxun Securities analysts believe that the current concentration of China's power battery market is rapidly increasing, and structural overcapacity is starting to show up. In the future, China's lithium battery market will be further concentrated in leading enterprises and leading enterprises. From the perspective of product structure, related policies have increasingly higher energy density requirements for power batteries. Considering that lithium iron phosphate batteries have natural disadvantages in terms of energy density, ternary lithium batteries are expected to develop rapidly.
Intelligent networking needs top-level design
The relevant policies clearly stated that in the future, auto companies should continue to develop new energy vehicles and at the same time carry out smart network technology research and promotion.
Since the beginning of this year, intelligent network-linked vehicles are entering a stage of rapid development. Many domestic enterprises have already seized intelligent cars and automated driving. Baidu announced the Apollo plan in the first half of this year, announcing the free opening up of driverless technology to its partners and accelerating the in-depth integration of the intelligent networked auto industry. Ali developed the first domestic Internet car smart operating system and gradually improved its application ecology.
Industry insiders believe that the advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) is expected to be widely used and promoted in 2016-2020, and that autopilot technology is expected to enter the market promotion stage by 2025. In addition, standards, chips, terminals, applications, tests, etc. are also making efforts in many ways. China's V2X based on autonomous LTE-V communications is accelerating development: Datang's first chip-level commercial product supporting LTE-V technology has become a technological development of PTVL3000. An important pusher; dual-mode V2X communication terminals launched by companies such as Neusoft and Nebula Connect, which helps the convergence of industry and car networking applications.
In response to the overall assessment of the development of intelligent network technology, Vice Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Engineers Gong Weijie told the China Securities Journal that the current technological development needs in areas such as artificial intelligence, information security, and laser radar have exceeded expectations, and its development progress It is expected to be ahead of the target set by the technology roadmap; there are still some gaps between the electronic and electrical architectures, smart computing platforms, and special-purpose chips compared with foreign countries. The construction of basic data platforms is still facing challenges.
Dongxing Securities analysts believe that autopilot and smart cars are only the "results" of the application level. The core of these applications is the depth of artificial intelligence algorithms and semiconductor chips. With the rapid development of automotive electronics and intelligence, occupying the upper reaches of the intelligent connected car value chain are artificial intelligence algorithm companies and chip semiconductor giants that produce central processors and internal memories.
At present, the focus of auto intelligentization and autopilot technology is gradually increasing. The top-level design of relevant laws, regulations, and regulatory measures has also been on the agenda of how to keep up with the industry's development needs. “Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently strengthening the coordination of top-level design and promoting the continuous improvement of intelligent networked automobile innovation and construction. As a new thing, the existing laws and regulations of intelligent networked vehicles have yet to be improved, and coordination at the national level is underway to intensify the formulation of relevant management systems that are suitable for the development of intelligent networked networks. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently told the China Securities Journal reporter .
Insiders pointed out that based on the steady development of the entire new energy vehicle and intelligent network-linked vehicle, the policy will be adjusted according to the characteristics of the new stage of the industry. Relevant ministries and commissions and local governments are expected to continue to study and improve relevant policies. It is expected that important adjustment policies in investment, taxation, subsidies, and industry management will be introduced in 2018.
Bldc Ceiling Fan Pcb Price,Worcester Bosch Fan Pcb,Bldc Fan Controller Pcb,Pcb Mount Fan
Full Industrial CO.,ltd. , https://www.iotaindustrial.com