Each era has its own theme, and the A-share market is the same. Real estate in 2011, rare earth industry in 2012, mobile games in 2013, high-speed rail in 2014, no matter the fundamentals, standing at the node at that time, these concept sectors can always get the favor of funds, rise against the trend, and make investors Profitable. Since 2015, the most popular sector has been the new energy vehicles. The whole sector has undergone a process of concept speculation-performance confirmation-re-hype. The overall cumulative increase is as high as 117%, especially the upstream lithium resource stocks are the fastest performing, many Individual stocks have repeatedly hit record highs in the market.
The hype of lithium resource stocks has passed, but as long as the demand for downstream new energy vehicles continues to increase, there may be opportunities in every link in the industry chain. Our relatively promising areas include upstream cobalt resources, neodymium iron boron, separators, mid-stream ternary lithium batteries, battery management systems and battery packs, and downstream new energy buses and charging piles. In the past year, the most popular sectors were non-new energy vehicles. Benefiting from policy support and the outbreak of market demand, new energy vehicles have seen a booming pattern of production and sales. In the secondary market, the entire sector has doubled its growth rate since 2015, ranking among the top of the major concept sectors. In particular, the leading lithium-ion resource stocks, such as Tianqi Lithium Industry and Polyfluoride, are the most frequent stocks. The new high has not been affected by the stock market crash.
The speculation on lithium resource stocks may be over-extended, but the investment feast brought by this new energy vehicle has just begun. As long as downstream demand is still there, every link in the industry chain may experience the same as lithium battery stocks. Crazy. This article will reorganize the entire industrial chain of new energy vehicles. As long as investors carefully explore, they may find the next “lithium†ore resource.
Crazy lithium resources
Lithium resources are the starting point for this round of new energy vehicle speculation. The market has been speculating on the lithium resources sector for a long time. It has been five years since the name of Tesla. During this period, although the sector has changed, it has been not warm. In 2015, the price of lithium resources suddenly rose. According to Wind's statistics, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate with a purity of 99.5% in Sichuan at the beginning of 2015 was only 4.55 million yuan/ton, and it has risen to 150,000 yuan by the end of the year, a surge of 2.3 times.
There is no reason for the skyrocketing price of lithium resources. The most direct reason is the increase in downstream demand. The State Council clearly stated in the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)†that it will achieve production and sales of more than 500,000 units by the end of 2015. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, the cumulative output of domestic new energy vehicles in 2015 was 340,000 units, a surge of 3.35 times year-on-year and sales of 331,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.43 times. The entire new energy vehicle industry showed a continuous blowout situation and exceeded the country. The goal of the release.
Of course, the tight supply of upstream is also a big factor. Lithium resources mainly exist in the form of lithium brine and lithium ore. The lithium salt of brine accounts for more than 85%. This part of the resources mainly exists in the salt lakes of Qinghai and Tibet. However, due to environmental constraints, brine resources have been difficult to form large-scale mining capacity, and capacity utilization has been very low. According to some professionals, the domestic supply and demand gap for lithium mines was about 4,000 tons in 2014, and it rose to 14,000 tons in 2015. The lithium mine capacity expansion cycle will take 1-2 years, and there may be room for price increases.
However, compared with lithium resources, the increase in the A-share related concept is even more exaggerated. The three major lithium mine giants Tianqi Lithium Industry, Polyfluoride, and Qifeng Lithium have increased their stock prices by 317%, 508% and 317% respectively from the beginning of 2015 to the present (May 10), and the increase has exceeded the price increase of upstream resources. The recent market plunge, the stock prices of these giants are still triumphant, have set a record high. Other concepts as long as they are in contact with lithium can get a good increase. For example, Rongjie, which has not yet obtained the right to resume production, has a market-to-earnings ratio of more than 3,000 times.
The market is almost crazy about the hype of lithium resources, but some brokers have begun to pour cold water on lithium resources to cool down. According to the latest report released by Guolian Securities, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% min in Sichuan) was lowered from 177,500 yuan/ton to 170,075 yuan/ton. This is the first time that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been lowered during the year. With the release of overseas production capacity, the price of lithium carbonate may gradually return to normal.
Industry chain
The market may be over-extended for the operation of the lithium resource concept stocks, but it also reflects the long-term good trend of the new energy auto industry. Through the reorganization of the new energy automobile industry chain, we hope to find the next lithium resource mine.
Simply put, the new energy automobile industry chain consists of five parts: the upper, middle and lower reaches. The upstream is resource-based and professional-type materials. The resource type mainly includes lithium resources and rare earth resources. The professional materials are divided into battery separators. , the positive and negative materials, electrolyte and electromagnetic materials; the middle reaches for processing and manufacturing, is also divided into two parts, one part is the processing and packaging of batteries, motors, electronic control and other parts, and the other part is the assembly of new vehicles in the new energy car factory The downstream links are consumers, including individuals, companies, distributors and governments. There is also a charging device downstream, and the corresponding consumer should be the operator. Separate
1) Lithium resources. The price of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate in the upstream lithium resources has risen sharply. Since the capacity expansion cycle generally takes 1-2 years, the market expects to have new capacity input at the end of the year, so the price of lithium carbonate may still remain at a high level. Lithium hexafluorophosphate is one of the main raw materials for electrolytes. Although its price has risen more than three times in 2015, with the promotion and application of ternary lithium batteries in the future, prices are still likely to climb. However, the increase in the relevant target in the secondary market has been too high, and the risk return is relatively low.
2) Diaphragm. The diaphragm leading stocks represented by Zhangzhou Pearl have recently adjusted the highs of the previous bull market, making the diaphragm replace the lithium battery and the new hot spot in the market. Although the lithium battery accounts for only 10%-20% of the cost of lithium battery materials, its technical barrier is the highest among all lithium battery materials. The diaphragm technology can be divided into wet method and dry method. The dry method is the main process of the domestic diaphragm manufacturer, but from a long-term perspective, the wet method industry will be the evolution direction of the future technology. In 2015, domestic wet diaphragm shipments were approximately 176 million square meters. In the future, with the increase of ternary batteries, the supply gap of wet diaphragms will be even larger. In this way, the diaphragm is very likely to become another area of ​​the big bull stock after the upstream lithium material.
3) Battery. The battery sector needs to focus on the ternary lithium battery and battery PACK and battery management system (BMS). The current mainstream of the market is in lithium iron phosphate batteries, but compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium batteries have the characteristics of high energy density and are an important development direction for power batteries in the future. The ternary lithium battery is mainly used in the field of passenger cars and logistics vehicles. In 2015, the total sales of pure electric passenger vehicles totaled 152,000, which was the highest among all models. At present, domestic large-scale new energy vehicle manufacturers such as BYD and Zotye have begun to tilt toward the ternary lithium battery, and the development prospects are becoming clearer. Referring to the hype path of lithium batteries, upstream cobalt resources, nickel resources, and manganese resources will all benefit first.
Battery PACK and Battery Management System (BMS) are extremely demanding areas. In addition, the A-shares that specialize in this business are very rare. As long as listed companies are involved in this field, they can be favored by funds. Shuguang shares acquired domestic BMS leader Yineng Electronics (the market share is about 30%, ranking first), and the stock price has doubled in less than one month; Jianrui Fire acquired the domestic battery PACK leader Wattma, even if the stock price is high Still pulled out of the five daily limit list. There is a high probability that black horses will appear in these two areas in the future.
4) Motor. The motor should be the middle and low level of the new energy vehicle and the battery, but the investment opportunity of the motor is not as good as the lithium battery. The main reason is that the current large automaker has strong technical strength and the motor is mostly equipped. From the perspective of the secondary market, the underlying stocks are indeed not good in terms of performance or stock price performance. Future opportunities may be more on the upstream material NdFeB.
5) Charging pile. In 2015, domestic new energy vehicles sold 330,000 vehicles, but by the end of 2015, there were only 3,600 domestic charging stations and less than 50,000 charging piles. For this reason, the country will build charging piles this year. According to the public data of Pacific Securities, the first quarter will be new. The number of charging stations is 2,000 and the number of charging piles is 90,000. The whole market is showing an accelerated trend. It is estimated that by 2020, 4.8 million charging piles will be built in China, and the market scale will reach 100 billion yuan. The relevant targets will significantly benefit the growth of the industry.
6) Vehicle companies. Among the new energy vehicle companies, one branch that requires special attention is the passenger car. Judging from the annual reports of the four new energy bus listed companies, the sales of new energy buses have indeed performed well, with substantial positive support. At the same time, accounts receivable have doubled and future performance is guaranteed. Moreover, due to the impact of the valuation of the automobile manufacturing industry, the valuation of new energy bus companies is currently low, and the stock price does not fully reflect the future growth. It is an area that investors should pay attention to for a long time.
Longhua Manxueling Trading Company , https://www.mxlvape.com