Let autopilot eliminate car drawbacks

Cars bring enormous mobility, freedom and enjoyment to millions of people. Much of the employment, investment, and corporate interests also depend on current car traffic patterns—no matter how dangerous it may be. For these reasons, some transportation experts have expressed doubts about whether the autonomous car revolution will come.

Let autopilot eliminate car drawbacks

We often list the best inventions of all time. But what are the worst inventions?

A nuclear bomb will be one of them. The AK-47 Kalashnikov assault rifle can also be ranked in the forefront of the list. The World Bank estimates that there are currently about 75 million such guns in circulation, killing tens of thousands of people each year.

But there is another invention that causes the total number of human deaths to be much more than the sum of the two weapons: the car.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), about 1.25 million people die each year from road traffic accidents, accounting for 2.2% of all deaths worldwide. It is difficult to find accurate data on how many people have died in cars in the past 100 years. But 50 million seems to be a reasonable guess. In comparison, the total number of deaths caused by all wars in the 20th century was 123 million.

If this level of death is not bad enough, cars also greatly increase environmental pollution and adverse climate change. Another drawback is that the car's demand for fuel makes it easy for some of the world's worst regimes – Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela – to generate huge revenues.

Fortunately, the end of the human-powered, gasoline-powered car may be close at hand. Some computer scientists refer to autonomous driving technology as a largely "solved problem," even before auto companies have enough confidence to allow fully self-driving passenger cars to go on the road. Rules need to be made to determine how the driverless cars interact and how to stop hacking.

But artificial (rather than technical) resistance seems to be more likely to be the biggest constraint to the autonomous car revolution. Whether we are driving or thinking about new technologies, humans are still weird in nature.

For now, the government is developing regulations to encourage the development of self-driving cars and electric cars, and manufacturers are experimenting quickly.

Last week, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said he hopes Britain will be one of the first countries to allow "real driverless cars" to go on road in 2021 (although he doesn't want to take a ride) People take pictures of cars and worry about being an embarrassing political metaphor for satirizing the status quo of the British government.)

The car company is responding. Uber announced last week that it would buy up to 24,000 Volvo cars by 2021 to form a fully autonomous, on-demand passenger car fleet.

One of the biggest risks is that the government and automakers will rush to allow untested autonomous vehicles to cross the morning road, triggering a public rebound. No matter how perfect the technology is, autonomous cars can still die. A technology company executive said: "It is very naive to think that you can reduce (the number of traffic deaths) from 1 million to zero."

Therefore, proving that autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than human-powered vehicles will be a tough struggle between statisticians and public perception. The first death from a self-driving car is sure to make the name of Jeremy Clarkson excitedly linger around the theme "I have told you this before."

The TV car presenter has expressed his doubts about the reliability of autonomous driving technology. He challenged the technology's promoters to ask if they dare to sit on their own autonomous car, in Bolivia. Drive on Death Road.

But what he said is correct, that is, drivers have an unusual attachment to their cars. Cars bring enormous mobility, freedom and enjoyment to millions of people. Much of the employment, investment, and corporate interests also depend on current car traffic patterns—no matter how dangerous it may be. For these reasons, some transportation experts have expressed doubts about whether the autonomous car revolution will come.

At the other extreme are those who are similar to the science think tank RethinkX, who predict, "We are on the threshold of one of the fastest in history...one of the most significant traffic patterns."

They predict that 95% of the passenger miles in the United States will be completed by self-driving cars, electric cars and cars within 10 years of obtaining extensive regulatory approvals. We will turn to the model of “traffic as a service”. By 2030, the number of passenger cars in the United States will fall from 247 million to 44 million, and millions of driving jobs and even the oil industry will be devastated.

Which kind of scene will appear in the real world is both a social choice problem and a technical possibility problem. We should test this technique over and over again, carefully measure the evidence, and then make a wise choice. Our bad inventions are already enough.

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