On May 21, the three basic telecom operators announced their business report for April, and the three situations were mixed. In addition to the worry, everyone is concerned that China Mobile has seen a net decrease in 4G users in the case of a net increase of more than 1.2 million mobile phone users. Because this net reduction is the first time in the industry, even China Unicom has experienced a positive growth in the total size of mobile users. Some even use the "black swan" to describe this incident. Although we can't judge whether it is the basis for its active squeezing of water, or because of the result of the cooperation of friends and businessmen to block the effectiveness, even statistical errors and other reasons. On the Internet, the title of "Operator's April transcript: the landscape is no longer good and the glue will become the norm" summarizes the operator's business comparison results.
On the same day, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website published the "Economic Operation of the Communication Industry in April 2018", which reported the overall operation of the communications industry. Overall, the industry is running smoothly. However, through various data comparison analysis, we are still able to come up with some thought-provoking and even future events that will have a profound impact on the development of the industry. Now let's take a look at what the telecom industry has experienced in the past April and what impact these events have on the future.
First, the total volume of business continued to rise and the growth rate of revenue further narrowed. The effect of “water release and fish farming†at the regulatory level was further revealed.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total volume of telecommunication services increased by 125% in April, and the revenue of telecommunication services increased by 4.5% year-on-year. From January to March 2018, the total volume of telecommunication services increased by 121.9% year-on-year, and the revenue of telecommunication services increased by 5.1% year-on-year; -In February, the total volume of telecom services increased by 117% year-on-year, and the revenue of telecommunications services increased by 4.9%. The relevant data is detailed in the table below. As the total volume of telecommunication services continued to grow, the growth rate of business revenues in the same period slowed further, and the gap between the volume and the scissors further expanded. The communication industry “water and fish farming†supports other economic formats, especially supporting the development of related industries such as the Internet and the communications industry. Even if there is strict control over the short-term regulatory situation, the communications industry should also intensify its efforts to expand its business volume by extending its upstream and downstream industries, infiltrating its peers, and building an ecosystem around its core strengths. On the basis of finding new revenue growth points. If the amount of loosening scissors continues to expand so arbitrarily, how will the revenue of the communications industry be organized in the future? How to protect the profits of the industry? Where should the funds for the construction of 5G+NB be implemented?
Second, the proportion of revenues in traffic business continues to rise, and the traffic transformation in the communications industry is expected to be realized within the year.
According to data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total traffic volume of the three basic telecommunications companies increased by 209% year-on-year in January-April, and the revenue of traffic business increased by 14.2% year-on-year, accounting for 46.1% of the revenue of the telecommunications business. The revenue revenue increased by 3.9 compared with the same period of last year. The percentage point, that is, the proportion of the same period last year was 42.2%. In January-February, the total traffic volume of the three basic telecommunications companies increased by 186% year-on-year, and the revenue of traffic business increased by 15.1% year-on-year, accounting for 45.9% of the revenue from telecom services. At the end of 2017, the data showed that the revenue of traffic business in telecom business increased from 38.1% in 2016 to 43.5%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points. At the end of February, the traffic revenue increased by 2.4% compared with the end of the previous year. Although the traffic growth in March-August was limited, it only increased by 0.2%, but we still have reason to believe that with various unlimited packages. The comprehensive in-depth promotion and continued shrinking of voice business and revenue, traffic transformation is expected to be achieved within the year. In addition, in April, the average household traffic (DOU) reached 3.41GB, which was 123MB higher than that in March (DOU). Compared with the average household traffic (DOU) of 1.73GB at the end of last year, the increase was nearly doubled. The time in 2018 has not been more than half, but the big video + big traffic, and the in-depth promotion of the unlimited package, has increasingly clearly reflected the fact that who has mastered the power of traffic distribution, who is in the communications industry The more stable the status of development.
Third, the ceiling effect has not yet appeared, the scale of mobile users continues to rise, and the growth rate of mobile phone penetration rate is accelerating
At the end of April, the total number of mobile phone users of the three basic telecommunications companies reached 1.48 billion, with a net increase of 65.41 million in January-April, with an average monthly increase of more than 16.35 million. Last year's data showed that the number of mobile phone users increased by 95.55 million in the whole year, and the monthly average was less than 8 million. The total number of net subscribers in the first four months of this year was close to 70% of the total amount in the previous year, and the average monthly net increase in users exceeded the average monthly net increase of more than doubled last year. In addition, the mobile phone penetration rate in January-April reached 106.7/100 people, a net increase of 4.7/100 people from the end of the previous year. By the end of 2017, the penetration rate of mobile phone users in China has reached 102.5/100 people, an increase of 6.9/100 people compared with 2016. It can be clearly seen from such data comparison that the growth rate of mobile phone users is accelerating. Only when the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, the natural population growth rate continues to fall, and the economic situation has not yet experienced significant high-speed growth, how can we determine the fact that the penetration rate of mobile phone users continues to rise rapidly? Is the growth of multi-end users after the economy continues to improve, or the emergence of a large number of two- or multi-card users, or even the artificial addition of water? Of course, we can't determine the specific reason only from the existing data analysis. But we still have a bigger question, saying that the ceiling of mobile users' growth is already very close, then is there any ceiling here, and when will it be touched in the future? In the second half of the year, how will the total number of mobile phone users increase? We are unable to give a conclusion for the time being, so we will wait and see.
Since the beginning of this year, especially after March, the strong control measures of the regulatory authorities have been continuously introduced. Various new policies are aimed at the weaknesses and pain points of the communication industry, and the promotion of the volume promotion mode is emphasized to maximize the user's sense of acquisition. Moreover, April is the first month after the introduction of various policies. Enterprises in the industry need to strictly study and judge the new policies, and accordingly launch and adjust business measures. However, the current data has already stated that, to each user, whether or not they admit it, everyone's sense of acquisition is a real improvement.
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