The packaging industry is clearly warming up
Recently, Ruifeng Optoelectronics (300241) Dong secret Wang Yuchun revealed that in just one week in March, the company's orders have increased significantly. At the same time, last year's LED chip makers cut prices and sold out inventory. The downward trend in chip prices has gradually stabilized, and the company has not priced the chips.
Wang Yuchun pointed out that before the first half of last year, the LED packaging industry has been developing very well, but by the third quarter of last year, the whole industry situation has turned sharply, and the situation in the fourth quarter is even worse. After the Spring Festival this year, the market is more pessimistic. In late February, it was reported that the situation of Taiwan's packaging enterprises was improving. At that time, it did not feel any change in the company. However, from January to March, the company's orders increased significantly, and the industry recovered significantly.
Wang Yuchun further said that the company's order pick-up will not only have demand from LED backlights, but also demand from LED lighting.
According to industry insiders, as early as February, the LED industry has shown signs of recovery, and it will pick up significantly in March. First of all, orders for LED chips and packaging manufacturers in Taiwan have improved, and capacity utilization has increased. Through regional conduction, the trend of LED companies in the Mainland is gradually improving. The increase in shipments of large-size backlight displays has greatly increased the demand for LED-related products.
According to the latest news, Taiwan's LED manufacturers such as Jingyuan, Yiguang, Dongbei, and Yuanyuan announced their operating income in February this week. The industry expects LED revenues in Taiwan to increase by 10% to 20% in February, with the increase in demand for panel backlights and LED lighting. It is expected to rise from month to month in the third quarter.
Among them, Yuyuan announced that its revenue for February was NT$320 million (approximately RMB 68.45 million), an increase of approximately 18% from January. The company said that revenue growth was mainly due to an increase in orders for large-size backlights, while small and medium-sized parts also rebounded slightly. It is expected that LED lighting demand will gradually pick up.
Chip business pressure still exists
Compared with the recovery of the mid-stream packaging industry, a person listed on the LED chip company admitted that after the substantial expansion of the previous two years, "the current pressure on chip companies is slightly larger."
The 2011 annual report released by listed companies also shows that the inventory of LED chip companies at the end of last year has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year. For example, Sanan Optoelectronics (600703) had inventory of 919 million yuan as of the end of 2011, although it was compared with the third quarter. The decrease was still increased by 195.88% compared with the 310 million yuan at the beginning of the year. Silan Micro (600460) stocks at the end of 2011 were 438 million yuan, an increase of 53.91% from the beginning of the year.
The above-mentioned person said that the LED packaging business is expected to have a pulling effect on the upstream chip business. However, based on the imbalance of industrial structure supply and demand caused by the crazy expansion of chip companies in the past two years, he expects that the contradiction between supply and demand in the chip segment will still be fundamentally changed. And said that it is not optimistic about the overall performance of the upstream of the LED industry.
In addition, the above-mentioned chip listed companies said that although the current price of chips has gradually stabilized, the decline in chip prices is a long-term trend, and the decline in product gross profit will also be an inevitable trend. This has been the most direct response in the listed company's annual report. The gross profit margin of Silan Micro's LED products was 35.65%, a decrease of 12.41% over the previous year. At the same time, due to the decline in gross profit margin, Sanan Optoelectronics chip sales business profit margin decreased by 43.47%.
However, the person also said that the price of the chip will drop and the cost performance of the product will increase, which will eventually lead to a larger market space. At present, the competition space of domestic LED chip companies is relatively small, especially in lighting applications, mainly relying on financial input and financial subsidies, mainly based on engineering lighting.
Overall, the obvious rebound in packaging industry orders has made LED companies optimistic about the industry's full-year trend. Wang Yuchun expects that the situation in the second half of the year should be better than that in the first half of the year. His views have been recognized by many people in the industry. The industry is also generally expected to benefit from the rebound in demand for LED backlights and the steady growth in demand for LED lighting. With the promotion and investment of financial subsidies, the industry will show a trend of low and high in the whole year.
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