When TSMC released its revenue in August 2011, it took the initiative to express the recent influx of urgent orders. The third quarter will be better than originally expected; however, behind this there is a secret that does not speak of export.
TSMC chairman Zhang Zhongmou has recently been very busy, while implying that the central bank’s president, Peng Huainan, is not as good as the South Korean government’s plans for the company. The two sides have to use their 80-year-old to personally visit customers and to the directors of MediaTek. The senior officials of Cai Mingjie and Qualcomm reminded themselves. The check he wrote last time in the Falun Gong said: "Order backflow in the fourth quarter." Whether or not the order can be successfully honored has become one of the indicators for the market to check the boom, and it also tests Zhang Zhongmou's mastery of orders.
Zhang Dashuai has taken the horse, and it really will immediately be effective. It is reported that the chip companies related to mobile communications such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Broadcom, etc., took the lead in recovering the temperature since the end of August. TSMC even issued a statement that the third quarter revenue will be better than the original forecast of a 5.9% decline from the second quarter. To 7.7%; but no latest forecast has been announced.
However, what TSMC did not say was not only the new target of the third quarter, but also behind the backflow of orders. It was the first time that the foundry price had been loosened for more than two years before the routine price cuts. This time, the downstream customer, MediaTek, played a key role.
The small number of orders for MediaTek seeks to break the price and successfully push back to early August. Looking at another month or so, it was the beginning of the fourth quarter, but MediaTek, which accounted for approximately 10% of UMC’s revenue, affected MediaTek’s revenue of approximately 2% to 3%, and was the fourth largest of the two wafer foundry giants. Forecasting the order quantity in the quarter is very scanty, and even some sources point out that it is an ultra-low level of “close to zeroâ€.
Based on the pre-project period of at least six weeks for general foundry orders, the abnormal behavior of MediaTek does not prohibit TSMC and UMC’s business personnel from being nervous. It is not really so bad in the fourth quarter.
According to estimates by Daiwa Securities, the current total semiconductor inventory days are 5% to 6% higher than the historical average. It is estimated that this wave of inventory adjustment will continue until the end of the year. However, the economy is still worse, MediaTek's order quantity is unlikely to approach zero, in particular, Mediatek's inventory at the end of the second quarter is 75 to 80 days, which is a healthy water level, and there is no problem with excessive inventory.
The key point is coming.
It is understood that at the end of August and early September, MediaTek plans to ship orders for October and finally it will infiltrate into TSMC and UMC; not only that, the forecast volume of orders for the fourth quarter will also return to 100,000 to 150,000 per quarter. normal level. In the blank weeks before this, MediaTek and its rivals competed and hoped that the two companies could make concessions on the price of foundry.
MediaTek cut orders into orders ranging from 50,000, 30,000, etc., to a single sum of money for talks with foundries, and each time they talked, they would fight for some price cuts.
UMC, which has a low capacity utilization rate, has been shaken earlier. It is reported that some orders eventually negotiated a price discount of up to 10%. TSMC’s attitude is more hawkish, but it also made a slight increase in orders for a large number of advanced processes. (percentage of single digits) concessions.
And not only MediaTek, a number of Taiwanese large and medium-sized chip design companies, the original forecast for fourth quarter orders are much lower than previous years. In recent days, the overall economic slowdown has been suspended, and a small number of companies have also raised their forecast for third-quarter revenue by 5% to 10%, and have successively obtained preferential conditions.
The same industry bargain robs one-on-one wafers and trespasses the price. The old god is still loosening its key customers at the same time as the price of wafers. It has been two years since the last time in the first half of 2009 and after the financial tsunami. However, as early as before TSMC and UMC offered price cuts in September, two foundries, Global Foundries and SMIC, took the initiative to reduce their 12-inch production process for major customers as early as July. The price of work, and the magnitude is said to be as high as 15% to 20%, shows that it is to grab a single.
However, not every customer can enjoy the price reduction benefits of TSMC and UMC. Because of this wave of price cuts, the “brand price†on the countertop has not changed at all, and the only measure of “bargaining price†is: How many orders do you want to place? It is completely based on the game rules of price system. Companies with small orders are naturally more difficult to gain the upper hand in bargaining space.
In response to the above-mentioned news, TSMC and MediaTek both stated that the order quantity and price were both commercial and would not comment.
The customer's order volume for the fourth quarter returned to normal levels, and it is expected that TSMC and UMC’s revenue in the fourth quarter will be flat or slightly higher than the third quarter. The original U.S. CEO Sun Shiwei, who was quite pessimistic about taking orders in the second half of the year, also changed his previous attitude to “catch up†orders twice a day, morning and evening. His recent mood seemed much better, and he was also described by internal employees as “walkingâ€. Wind."
The oversupply of capacity utilization rate of oversupply next year can be seen. However, the situation is not so good that it is not a dark cloud. After all, the fourth quarter is just “returning to the normal level†and it is not enough to support the hypothesis of “big rejuvenation.†In 2011, semiconductor capital expenditures were rewritten to a record high of US$41.1 billion, a 23% increase from 2010, and the supply surface continued to flow; the demand side was temporarily relieved of the Greek debt crisis. However, the economic growth of the US, Europe and even China is doubtful next year. Together with the fact that client inventory is still higher than average, no shortage is needed. This means that the capacity utilization ratio of wafers will be lower next year, and the chances of continuing to go down will be higher than the chance of climbing up. Too much.
As a result, the price of foundry re-starting in the third quarter of 2011, two years apart, does not appear to be simply an incident. TSMC and MediaTek each have to keep the bottom line at 44% and 42%, which will make the price match between future foundries and customers more intense.
TSMC chairman Zhang Zhongmou has recently been very busy, while implying that the central bank’s president, Peng Huainan, is not as good as the South Korean government’s plans for the company. The two sides have to use their 80-year-old to personally visit customers and to the directors of MediaTek. The senior officials of Cai Mingjie and Qualcomm reminded themselves. The check he wrote last time in the Falun Gong said: "Order backflow in the fourth quarter." Whether or not the order can be successfully honored has become one of the indicators for the market to check the boom, and it also tests Zhang Zhongmou's mastery of orders.
Zhang Dashuai has taken the horse, and it really will immediately be effective. It is reported that the chip companies related to mobile communications such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Broadcom, etc., took the lead in recovering the temperature since the end of August. TSMC even issued a statement that the third quarter revenue will be better than the original forecast of a 5.9% decline from the second quarter. To 7.7%; but no latest forecast has been announced.
However, what TSMC did not say was not only the new target of the third quarter, but also behind the backflow of orders. It was the first time that the foundry price had been loosened for more than two years before the routine price cuts. This time, the downstream customer, MediaTek, played a key role.
The small number of orders for MediaTek seeks to break the price and successfully push back to early August. Looking at another month or so, it was the beginning of the fourth quarter, but MediaTek, which accounted for approximately 10% of UMC’s revenue, affected MediaTek’s revenue of approximately 2% to 3%, and was the fourth largest of the two wafer foundry giants. Forecasting the order quantity in the quarter is very scanty, and even some sources point out that it is an ultra-low level of “close to zeroâ€.
Based on the pre-project period of at least six weeks for general foundry orders, the abnormal behavior of MediaTek does not prohibit TSMC and UMC’s business personnel from being nervous. It is not really so bad in the fourth quarter.
According to estimates by Daiwa Securities, the current total semiconductor inventory days are 5% to 6% higher than the historical average. It is estimated that this wave of inventory adjustment will continue until the end of the year. However, the economy is still worse, MediaTek's order quantity is unlikely to approach zero, in particular, Mediatek's inventory at the end of the second quarter is 75 to 80 days, which is a healthy water level, and there is no problem with excessive inventory.
The key point is coming.
It is understood that at the end of August and early September, MediaTek plans to ship orders for October and finally it will infiltrate into TSMC and UMC; not only that, the forecast volume of orders for the fourth quarter will also return to 100,000 to 150,000 per quarter. normal level. In the blank weeks before this, MediaTek and its rivals competed and hoped that the two companies could make concessions on the price of foundry.
MediaTek cut orders into orders ranging from 50,000, 30,000, etc., to a single sum of money for talks with foundries, and each time they talked, they would fight for some price cuts.
UMC, which has a low capacity utilization rate, has been shaken earlier. It is reported that some orders eventually negotiated a price discount of up to 10%. TSMC’s attitude is more hawkish, but it also made a slight increase in orders for a large number of advanced processes. (percentage of single digits) concessions.
And not only MediaTek, a number of Taiwanese large and medium-sized chip design companies, the original forecast for fourth quarter orders are much lower than previous years. In recent days, the overall economic slowdown has been suspended, and a small number of companies have also raised their forecast for third-quarter revenue by 5% to 10%, and have successively obtained preferential conditions.
The same industry bargain robs one-on-one wafers and trespasses the price. The old god is still loosening its key customers at the same time as the price of wafers. It has been two years since the last time in the first half of 2009 and after the financial tsunami. However, as early as before TSMC and UMC offered price cuts in September, two foundries, Global Foundries and SMIC, took the initiative to reduce their 12-inch production process for major customers as early as July. The price of work, and the magnitude is said to be as high as 15% to 20%, shows that it is to grab a single.
However, not every customer can enjoy the price reduction benefits of TSMC and UMC. Because of this wave of price cuts, the “brand price†on the countertop has not changed at all, and the only measure of “bargaining price†is: How many orders do you want to place? It is completely based on the game rules of price system. Companies with small orders are naturally more difficult to gain the upper hand in bargaining space.
In response to the above-mentioned news, TSMC and MediaTek both stated that the order quantity and price were both commercial and would not comment.
The customer's order volume for the fourth quarter returned to normal levels, and it is expected that TSMC and UMC’s revenue in the fourth quarter will be flat or slightly higher than the third quarter. The original U.S. CEO Sun Shiwei, who was quite pessimistic about taking orders in the second half of the year, also changed his previous attitude to “catch up†orders twice a day, morning and evening. His recent mood seemed much better, and he was also described by internal employees as “walkingâ€. Wind."
The oversupply of capacity utilization rate of oversupply next year can be seen. However, the situation is not so good that it is not a dark cloud. After all, the fourth quarter is just “returning to the normal level†and it is not enough to support the hypothesis of “big rejuvenation.†In 2011, semiconductor capital expenditures were rewritten to a record high of US$41.1 billion, a 23% increase from 2010, and the supply surface continued to flow; the demand side was temporarily relieved of the Greek debt crisis. However, the economic growth of the US, Europe and even China is doubtful next year. Together with the fact that client inventory is still higher than average, no shortage is needed. This means that the capacity utilization ratio of wafers will be lower next year, and the chances of continuing to go down will be higher than the chance of climbing up. Too much.
As a result, the price of foundry re-starting in the third quarter of 2011, two years apart, does not appear to be simply an incident. TSMC and MediaTek each have to keep the bottom line at 44% and 42%, which will make the price match between future foundries and customers more intense.
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