The multiple dilemmas behind the differences in electricity prices

According to reports, there have been disagreements among the relevant departments regarding the call for the power companies to frequently raise their power prices. Some of the opinions suggested that the increase in electricity prices will help ease power losses and power shortages. Another part of the argument believes that the increase in electricity prices will dampen the already sluggish economic growth.

In fact, such “different electricity prices” will still exist for a long time, and there seems to be no solution in the short term.

For the electricity supply, although the installed capacity of China's power generation has created a record for global power construction in the past five years, the net increase has been 450 million kilowatts. However, it is difficult for a clever woman to be free of rice, and the capacity expansion of power generation capacity is due to the severe tightening of coal supply, which cannot be used at full capacity. This is the main reason for the “contradictions between coal and electricity” in China. In addition, the endogenous bottlenecks in nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, and biological energy are also one of the factors that contribute to the structural shortage of electricity supply in China.

As for the coal resources that account for nearly 70% of China's electricity supply, it has been continuously tightening over the years, and it has long since turned from the world's largest exporter in the 1990s to the world’s largest coal importer. Last year, China’s net coal imports have reached 170 million tons, accounting for 15% of the total global coal trade. While the import volume of coal has increased rapidly, its import cost has more than doubled in five years. This is also the key to frequent calls.

In terms of new energy, which accounts for about 30% of China's electricity supply, whether it is nuclear energy, hydropower, wind energy, solar energy, or bioenergy, it is difficult to break through the inherent bottleneck and it is difficult to pick the power supply beam in the short term. Nuclear energy, which was highly hoped for over the years, was completely suspended under the impact of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan in March this year. After the great leap forward over the past few years, water power has been challenged by ecological destruction and immigration disputes; wind power and solar energy also Due to the high cost of power generation and the difficulty of grid connection, it has been difficult to promote it on a large scale. However, due to the limited number of people in China, biological energy is more difficult to convert.

According to the prediction of CEC, after China’s power gap of 30 million kilowatts this year, China’s electricity gap will reach 50 million kilowatts in 2012. It is the ever-increasing power supply gap that has led to frequent power cuts in recent years, and has boosted the call for frequent price hikes by power companies.

Then, based on the analysis of the relationship between supply and demand that determines prices, it seems that the call for power prices by power companies is completely reasonable. However, if combined with the overall economic and livelihood security service attributes of the power supply, it is not the best time to increase the price of electricity.

Because, after China's economy was hit by the subprime crisis in the United States in 2008, economic growth experienced a brief recovery in the following two years. However, this year due to the continued deterioration of the debt crisis in Europe and America, economic growth has declined for three consecutive quarters. A large number of SMEs that rely on exports for their livelihood are on the verge of collapse. At this time, if the electricity price is increased, it will inevitably increase the production cost of the company, which will make it more difficult for the already troubled SMEs and increase the pressure on the people's livelihood; if the electricity price is not raised, the power supply gap will continue to increase, and the power companies will have difficulty. Follow. The price of electricity is not raised, nor is it raised. "Different electricity prices" are born. Behind this “different electricity price”, even more difficult structural structural contradictions in China’s economy are implicated.

This structural contradiction at the economic level manifests itself in the extensive economic growth mode that China has relied on over the years, and it is strongly dependent on the low and increasing prices of electricity supply. However, it is difficult to continue in China's electricity supply in the short term. Conversely, if we increase the frequency of power cuts and increase the rate of increase in electricity prices, although we can partially reduce the power supply gap and reduce the losses of power companies, this will cause a sharp decline in the short-term economy, and this will reduce the demand for domestic demand. Unemployment rates are unbearable.

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