At the critical time of one year, the “insured price growth†of the glass market set off market participants’ conjectures about “Golden 9 Silver 10â€. In August last year, the "wang" of the glass market had disturbed the entire market. How will this year's market behave? Industry insiders believe that this bull market has not yet been completed and the key to the future market trend is the change of supply side.
Multi-region “insured price increase†aims to boost the market
Since mid-June, the glass market revolved around the regional coordination meeting of “guaranteeing price growth†in some regions. According to the reporter of the Futures Daily, the three regions of Huazhong, South China and Northwest China took the lead. Among them, the first industry conference was held in Central China, and the topic was "insured price growth." After the price adjustment, the glass shipment rate in central China was 70% to 80%. At the beginning of July, an industry conference was held in South China, aiming to stabilize the production and sales of the entire region during the rainy season.
In the eyes of the industry, the so-called "insured price" is to maintain the current level of profit. Compared with previous years, the profit level of the glass industry in the first half of this year should be at a high level in recent years. Even though it has experienced the low season of the Spring Festival, the overall profit level has not dropped significantly.
It is understood that compared with the same period of last year, this year's glass market was significantly better than expected, showing "characteristically stable prices, rational return of costs, and significant increase in benefits." Although the first half of the year is a traditional off-season glass consumption, the demand for glass under the stimulus of real estate destocking is relatively optimistic, and the inventory of production companies is relatively reasonable. In the first half of the year, the spot price of glass was dominated by a narrow range of oscillations. There was no obvious and overall decline, and only regional differentiation. At the same time, the price of raw materials such as soda ash, which has soared since the fourth quarter of last year, has clearly declined after the Spring Festival, and the cost has been drastically reduced, which has, to some extent, increased the profits of glass-producing companies.
From the beginning of June, with the arrival of the low season for demand, glass-producing companies hope to stimulate market sentiment at the regional coordination meeting in a way that “guaranteed the price and maintain growthâ€, in particular boosting the confidence of downstream traders, and thus passing the industry 6,7 The off-season of the month.
In fact, in the face of the recent “insured price†phenomenon in the glass market, the market has shown two attitudes. "One is a relatively positive and optimistic attitude. Enterprises are willing to actively protect prices. On the one hand, they are optimistic about the market outlook. On the other hand, they reflect that the current inventory pressure is not large, which is conducive to maintaining a high degree of prosperity in the glass industry. It is more pessimistic and believes that the price trend reflects changes in supply and demand. For the glass market, changes in demand are particularly important.†Zhang Jun, a futures analyst at Zhongda University, believes that due to the different production and sales of glass companies, their expectations for the market outlook will also be different. In the off-season, the demand declines significantly. Under the marketization mechanism, certain companies with high inventory pressure will inevitably lead to price cuts, and the company’s insured price will lose its significance.
The reporter learned that glass manufacturing companies hold regional coordination meetings. This behavior is of positive significance, especially in boosting market sentiment. However, the actual situation is that under the influence of changes in the supply and demand side, the insured price measures may not be fully implemented.
According to Zhang Yongge, an analyst at Hongye Futures, whether the price of glass manufacturers can continue depends on the acceptance of traders. From the current point of view, the implementation of price increases by manufacturing companies is not effective. At the beginning of July, the Central China market even fell 40 yuan/ton under the influence of poor transport during the rainy season.
"On the one hand, the glass industry is low in concentration, and it is difficult to reach a price alliance. On the other hand, there are different expectations among companies for the future market, and there are differences in their own production capacity, specifications, and inventory." Zhang Jun believes that if the price trend does not With the expectation of development, some companies will often experience a phenomenon of “bright growth and declineâ€, especially when the regional leader cuts prices, other companies will follow suit.
From a fundamental point of view, in the first half of the year, the off-season of the glass market was not thin, and the industry's cold repair capacity has been resumed, which has virtually increased the supply pressure of the industry. "Only in June, there were 4 production lines resumed production, and the increase in supply or late-during peak season prices. Especially at the end of June, Jiangsu's two production lines resumed production. The loosening of prices in the East China market is inevitable," said Zhang Yongge.
This year's "Golden 9 Silver Ten" started or lags behind
The current time point can be said to be a key point for the glass market. At the end of the off-season peak season, any signs of trouble will affect the mood of the entire market.
In August last year, the "wang" of the glass market had disturbed the entire market. In the market, "a commodity is difficult to obtain", traders bid to buy goods, manufacturers offer several times during the day, once more than once, and the situation at the factory door queued to pull the goods to the industry people left a deep impression. In fact, the "prosperity" started as early as mid-July last year.
What is of concern to market participants is that at the same time, can the last wave of that year's market continue to be replicated this year? Is it time to start with time?
In the previous visit to the glass market, most of the participants in the glass spot industry chain now hold better expectations for the late spot market. They generally believe that the current spot market will still have better performance in the second half of the year due to the low inventory of current production companies, the imminent arrival of the traditional peak season, and the lack of financial pressure from production companies.
"In mid-July, the unbalanced production and sales ratio of the entire glass market will continue. Manufacturers will not reduce prices on the surface, but for some large customers, there will be some preferential policies; in the medium to long term, manufacturers are also bullish, based on the national inventory Not very high, plus the previous period of low prices, manufacturers to reduce some of the volume of goods, some of the goods to pressure in September.†A glass manufacturer in Hubei said that the results of capacity utilization and production capacity imbalance is the market grab the goods, the price continue rising.
At present, glass companies in all regions are optimistic about the future. The actual situation also proves that manufacturers' inventory is really low. "Although due to weather, storage quality problems, slowing shipments in some areas, but after the weather, the market will still have a wave of grab goods." Shahe local glass company responsible person said frankly.
However, when the market is expected to be consistent, it will not go as expected. In fact, it is also a question mark in the hearts of many people in the industry. "The truth is that 'golden nine silver ten', the market will not be as optimistic as expected, or need to take a step forward. But in my opinion, whether it is the start-up time or the extent of hot, this year may not be the same as last year." Great Wall glass futures director Wu Yan According to people, the start-up time for this year's market lags behind that of last year, and the gains will also be lower than last year.
There are not a few people who share the same concerns as Wu Yanmin. "Last year, the South China market took the lead in starting the peak season in July, and then brought the national market up. This year it is expected that the start of the market will be delayed until August." Zhang Jun believes that this year's glass market may not be able to replicate the explosive market in the second half of last year. "This year's cooling down of the real estate market will exert pressure on medium and long-term demand in building materials-related industries, weakening the willingness of glass downstream traders and processing companies to make up the bank." In addition, compared to last year, the glass prices in the first half of the year have been relatively stable and have been in a sluggish season. The difference is not obvious, which will also inhibit the upside momentum of the market in the second half of the season.
According to Zhang Jun, the risk point in the market in the second half of the year lies mainly in the supply side. First, the substantial increase in cold recovery production capacity, and second, the delayed cold repair of the kiln age-ending production line, both of which will aggravate the deterioration of the supply and demand situation in the glass market. . In addition, in the case of upstream fuels, coal prices have risen sharply under the influence of policies and seasonal factors in the second half of the year, thus raising the cost of glass production.
In the later stage, it should be noted that, first, glass and other building materials products are different, and their dependence on the real estate market is relatively high. With the deepening of the state's control over real estate policies, the turning point in the future is inevitable. Second, since the second half of last year, The growth rate of glass production capacity and production rate is relatively fast, resulting in a relatively large increase in effective production compared to the same period of last year. Third, excessively high profits have caused some production lines to accelerate production; Fourth, since the beginning of this year, the export market has decreased slightly, and part of the color glass has been converted to white glass. , resulting in increased supply; Fifth, environmental protection supervision and other factors caused part of the glass deep-processing enterprises to stop production and stop production, reducing the glass consumption; Sixth, soda ash and other raw materials prices there is still some room for growth. These are all potential risk points in the future market.
It is undeniable that the demand for glass in the second half of the year will increase by a certain extent in absolute terms, but the increase may be lower than market expectations. At the same time, with the deepening of real estate control policies, real estate builders will slow down the procurement of glass and its products. With the accelerated release of some of the production capacity, the spot price of glass will be in a pattern of not flourishing in the peak season, with a narrow range of oscillation as the main factor.
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